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04/13/18

Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
by Feifang Hu & James V Zidek ~ in our From the Archives Press & Video Clippings

From the Archives Press Clippings:
Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
By Feifang Hu & James V Zidek

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
By Feifang Hu & James V Zidek
Download source here:
Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
by Feifang Hu & James V Zidek

"... Predicting the outcome of a future game between two sports teams poses a challenging problem of interest to statistical scientists as well as the general public. To be effective such prediction must exploit special contextual features of the game. In this paper, we confront such features and address the need to:

(i) use all relevant sample information;
(ii) reflect the home game advantage.

To do so we use the weighted likelihood. Finally we demonstrate the value of the method by showing how it could have been used to predict the 96/97 NBA playoff results. Our weighted likelihood-based method proves to be quite accurate. ..."

"... This paper demonstrates the use of the weighted likelihood (WL) to predict the winner of National Basketball Association (NBA) final games and applies the method in each of the games played in the 1996-97 finals between the two top ranked teams, the Chicago Bulls and the Utah Jazz. However, as we try to indicate, the WL has much wider applicability inside as well outside the domain of sports.way dunker created by a teammate’s steal, offensive rebound, and or perfect outlet pass? ..."

"... The genesis of our work lies in two statistical problems encountered in sports:
(i) the prediction of the outcome of a future game between two specified sports teams;
(ii) the assessment of the accuracy of this prediction.

Since typically these two teams will not have met more than just a few times in the given season, little direct information will be available to the forecaster. The consequent small sample size will make naive predictions inaccurate and the associated prediction intervals excessively large. ..."

1996-97 Chicago Bulls Championship: #1 ~ Randy Brown: #30 ~ Jud Buechler; #35 ~ Jason Caffey; #18 ~ Bison Dele; #9 ~ Ron Harper; #23 ~ Michael Jordan; #25 ~ Steve Kerr; #7 ~ Toni Kukoc; #13 ~ Luc Longley; #00 ~ Robert Parish; #33 ~ Scottie Pippen; #91 ~ Dennis Rodman; #8 ~ Dickey Simpkins; #6 ~ Matt Steigenga, #34 	Bill Wennington In this photograph from Operation Sports presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Photograph: Operation Sports

"... Usually in sports, the outcome of any one game derives from the combined efforts of two teams that have seldom played each other before. Yet these games yield the only direct sample information available about the relative strength of these two teams.

At the same time, each of these teams will have played many games against other teams thereby generating relevant (although not direct) sample information. The predictive probability of a win in the next game between these two teams, should combine both kinds of information ..."

"... Based on the probabilities and the confidence intervals of Table 1, we can find the probabilities with which the Bulls (and Jazz) will win the Final by Game 4, 5, 6 or 7.

Also we can calculate the total win probabilities for the Bulls against the Jazz based on its home and away win probabilities given by each of the three estimation methods.
Confidence intervals for these win probabilities may be obtained as well.

In Table 2 where the results are reported, and in the tables that follow, that interval is obtained for any pair of teams say A and B from the 95% asymptotic intervals for A’s home- and A’s away-win-against-B probabilities.. ..."

"... The method in this paper provides guidelines for the development of a prediction strategy. Its implementation, more specifically the construction of weights entails the incorporation of any special features that may obtain when the game is played.

For example, one might need to incorporate the knowledge that certain key players cannot play in that game."

To be more precise, we fitted a logistic model using the software R with the response variable being 1 or 0 according as the outcome of any game during the season was a visitor or home victory. We used dummy variables to represent visitor and home teams in each game throughout the season.

Thus for example, BullsV=1 and Super-sonics=1, all other dummies being 0, would mean those two teams were playing for that particular game, the visitors being the Bulls. For each of the factors, ‘visitor’ and ‘home’ we represented by the dummies in this way, we arbitrarily chose the 76er’s as the baseline team.

Thus, in effect, the fitted intercept, suitably transformed, provides an estimate of the likelihood of a ‘1’ in the purely hypothetical situation where the 76er’s played themselves at home as the visitors.

The coefficients for the remaining dummies represent the deviations from the 76er’s performance for each of the other teams depending on whether they were playing at home or awa ..." Read more ...

Read more articles in Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada


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To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here:
“Análisis Espacial de Lanzamientos en Baloncesto; el Caso de L.A. Lakers
by López, F.A., Martínez, J.A. y Ruiz, M.
.



From the Archives Video Clippings:
Va' pensiero Riccardo Muti speaking about Italian culture, Opera di Roma



Va' pensiero Riccardo Muti speaking about Italian culture, Opera di Roma

Muti said : yes, viva Italia... But, as we are in house, quite at home, let us speak together.
"Va pensiero", in old days, was a political symbol. I'm not a politician but I can say that if our culture goes on being slain, our Italia will be "si bella e perduta". So, as the choir has beautifully sung it, we should join them to sing another time "Va, pensiero !"


'From the Archives Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the regularly!

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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03/21/18

Kobe Bryant is not as Good as Michael Jordan -- So What?
by David Friedman ~ in our Weekly Press & Video Clippings

Press Clippings:
Kobe Bryant is not as Good as Michael Jordan--So What?
By David Friedman

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From 20 Second Timeout
By David Friedman
Download source here: ' Kobe Bryant is not as Good as Michael Jordan
So What? ' by David Friedman

"... Kobe Bryant scored 26 points during the Lakers' 100-94 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday December 14 to move past Michael Jordan into third place on pro basketball's career scoring list.

One might think that this accomplishment would be an occasion to reflect upon Bryant's consistency and longevity but while some observers have taken that approach many commentators go to great lengths--either via anecdotes or via statistics--to "prove" that Jordan is not just better than Bryant but that Jordan is much better.

The very fact that the comparison is often made--even if it is just done to belittle Bryant--says a lot. ..."

"... The way that some people compare Jordan and Bryant is interesting. The best case for Jordan versus Bryant would focus on Jordan's efficiency and Jordan's performances during his 6-0 run in NBA Finals (Bryant has one more Finals appearance than Jordan but also two more Finals losses).

Of course, field goal percentages in general were higher during Jordan's era, the rules and style of play were much different and Jordan's overall numbers benefited from him playing college ball before immediately becoming an NBA starter while Bryant jumped straight to the NBA from high school and thus needed some on the job training as a bench player. ..."

"... While some media members and fans may not understand or appreciate the rough edges of Bryant's personality, Kevin Durant, the 2014 NBA MVP, respects Bryant's approach and refutes the idea that good players do not want to play with Bryant:

Excuse my language, but that's (expletive). I want to play with a winner every single night, especially somebody who wants to win that bad, who works that hard, who demands a lot, who raises up your level.

I'd want to play with a guy like that every day...(His style) may make people uncomfortable, how he acts and just how he approaches the game, but I love that type of stuff. I think (the accusation) is BS. ..."

Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls talks to Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers about leadership and potential to succeed in the game of basketball In this Photograph from Flickr presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Photograph: Flickr


"... Once one moves past comparing Bryant to Jordan and once one understands that any player with the right mindset would welcome the challenge and opportunity of playing with Bryant, one can focus on just how remarkable Bryant's current season is.

Forget for a moment his career-low field goal percentage and consider the fact that Bryant is a highly productive player in his 19th NBA season. Only three players in NBA history have even made it past their 19th season: ......"

"... In contrast, during the 2014-15 season Bryant is logging heavy minutes (35.4 mpg), his floor game is still excellent (5.1 rpg, 4.9 apg and 1.4 spg, numbers that are comparable to his career averages of 5.3 rpg, 4.8 apg and 1.4 spg) and he is scoring 24.6 ppg.

Bryant's field goal percentage (.372) is not good but he is remarkably productive and durable for a 19 year veteran who is coming off of two serious leg injuries. Bryant is in excellent shape and if his body holds up his field goal percentage will probably improve during the course of this season as he regains his game legs after being out of action for such an extended period.
..."

"... No, Kobe Bryant is not quite as good as Michael Jordan and, no, Kobe Bryant is no longer as efficient or dominant as he was during his prime--or even during his last healthy full season, when he was a legitimate MVP-caliber player averaging 25.5 ppg on .463 field goal shooting (including a career-high .510 from two point range) as a 17 year NBA veteran--but Bryant is the closest thing to Jordan that we have seen or are likely to see anytime soon. Bryant's former dominance and his remarkable, ongoing longevity should be celebrated. ..." Read more ...

Read more articles in 20 Second Timeout


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To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here:
' ¿Qué puede aportar la Estadística al baloncesto? ' by Román Salmerón.



Weekly Video Clippings:
' Snail's Dream ' Oscar nominated shortfilm by Iván Sáinz-Pardo



' Snail's Dream ' Oscar nominated shortfilm by Iván Sáinz-Pardo

An Iván Sáinz-Pardo shortfilm.
2001-Shortfilm 15 min. Germany / Spain

Oscar Award prenominated and nominated for "Deutsche Kurzfilmpreis" (Germany Oscars Awards).

Won at the Germany National Film Institution Friedrich Wilhelm Murnau-Stiftung, Germany 2002

Winner of 40 International Awards.


'Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the regularly

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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02/05/16

Friday Press Clippings: Do players "steal" rebounding opportunities ?

Friday Press Clippings:
Do players "steal" rebounding opportunities from teammates ?

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From Sabermetric Research
By Phil Birnbaum
Download source here: ' Do players "steal" rebounding opportunities from teammates? ' by Phil Birnbaum

"... In my previous post on rebounding, I promised to review some of the evidence supporting the "diminishing returns" hypothesis.

That's the theory that, in general, a player's individual rebound totals are not mostly a product of his own ability to snare rebounds, but, rather, predominantly because of his positioning on the court, or the role he is assigned on his team. ..."

"... Every extra rebound by the center results in 0.61 fewer rebounds by
teammates. ... "

"... That means that only 39 percent of center rebounds are "real", in the sense that the other team would have got them if not for the center's efforts.

If a center is (say) 20 rebounds above average for the season, then, on average, you should estimate that 12 of those rebounds would have been grabbed by a teammate anyway. ..."

Even the longest misses produce an average rebound distance that is only eight feet from the rim — not exactly a remote location. Part of this has to do with physics, part has to do with player spacing. Long-range shots generally occur when players are more spread out and there are fewer potential rebounders near the basket. <br />
In this Image by Kirk Goldsberry from GrantLand.com presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Image: by Kirk Goldsberry from GrantLand.com

"... The variance in team rebounds per game is LESS than the variance in rebounds per game by the center
alone ! ..."

"... Every additional rebound taken by the point guard reduces the rest of the team's rebound total by ... almost exactly one rebound: .96, to be exact. ..."

"... Taken at face value, that means that 24 out of 25 times, when a point guard gets a rebound, it's because the rest of the team deliberately leaves it for him! ..."

Read more articles in Sabermetric Research.

To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish, click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here: ' Random Basketball Versus Pick & Roll ' by Miguel Ángel Paniagua.



Friday Video Clippings:
Quantitative Vs Qualitative



Quantitative Vs Qualitative

Two researchers debate whether to use
Qualitative or Quantitative research in their new study


'Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the 4th. Friday of Every Month

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08/17/15

eBA Press Clippings: Govinda Patterson's Revolutionary Basketball Better Balance Techniques

eBA Press Clippings:
Govinda Patterson's Revolutionary Basketball Better Balance Techniques

Basketball Statistician's eBA Press Clippings
From Govinda Patterson on Facebook
By Govinda Patterson
Read more here: ' The Man Who Wants to Change the Way Basketball Is Played ' by Govinda Patterson

This revolutionary ideas combine basketball strategies with techniques learned in the martial arts. I call this system the “Better Balance Techniques.

It doesn’t matter how big or strong or fast you are. If you know your center of balance and you use it to control your opponent’s balance, then you have a big advantage.

Why would you play off-balance if you didn’t have to?. I think what I’m teaching can help shape the way people play the game.

I want to transform the fundamental footwork of basketball with an array of offensive moves and defensive stances developed from martial arts-based principles of leverage.

I envision doing this by teaching my concepts—and the offensive and defensive schemes specifically designed to employ them—to an NBA team and watching it win a championship with them.

I do understand I’m asking for a lot.

Govinda Patterson's Revolutionary Basketball Better Balance Techniques<br />
In this Image by courtesy of Govinda Patterson presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .

I grew up playing basketball in and around Mount Shasta, Calif. I was an all-star post player in high school and grew to be 6 feet 5 1/2 inches tall, and I played junior college ball at the College of the Siskiyous before a back injury prematurely ended my career. Along the way, I also had dabbled in the martial arts, including aikido, judo and karate, and I earned a brown belt in Kung Fu San Soo.

I didn’t realize it at first that what I was doing was combining what I had learned in (martial arts training) and applying it to basketball. After I got hurt I couldn’t play, so I thought about the game all the time, and it just made so much more sense. The center of balance - knowing your center of gravity - was the key. The techniques help so much with post offense, post defense and rebounding.


Govinda Patterson's Revolutionary Basketball Better Balance Techniques by eBAsketball

I did some voluntary and assistant coaching in California and Utah before moving to the Islands to be with my girlfriend, Lianna. I’d lived in Mililani the past three years and I am now trying to promote his idea to NBA coaching staffs. I'd talked with nine NBA teams and one WNBA team, but so far I havn’t been able to get past an introductory stage and all the way to the head coach.

Every team has loved what I’ve shown them, but unfortunately I haven’t been able to see any head coaches yet. It boggles my mind. I would think that any coach who wants to win would be willing to see me for 10 minutes. I realize that the NBA has hundreds of people calling them, and they may think this is just another crazy person calling. (But) I think this (technique) definitely creates a chance to give their players an advantage. Even if it’s only a couple of rebounds a game, it’s worth it!.

Basketball legend Bill Walton helped me in my journey. He watched and listened so intently, and said he agreed with everything I said, and then he wrote me a great letter of recommendation. It’s opened so many doors.

Govinda Patterson's Revolutionary Basketball Better Balance Techniques<br />
In this Image by courtesy of Govinda Patterson presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .

“He has some valuable things to offer. I don’t know if all of it works, but there are some things you could use. Looking at how he connects with players, there’s something there. The problem is, you have to be a big-time coach to get your team to sign off on the expense of bringing a guy in for two weeks from Hawaii. And then there’s the time commitment. It’s just easier to say no. What he needs is the chance, once and for all, to succeed or fail.”, says finally former Sacramento Kings head coach Keith Smart.

Read also this interesting story by Ric Bucher, NBA Senior Writer.

Read more articles in Govinda Patterson on Facebook.

'Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited Regularly Every Month

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Mike Krzyzewski
Gregg Marshall
Greg McDermott
Dave Paulsen
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Mike Krzyzewski: All Access Duke Basketball Practice: National Championship Season by Mike Krzyzewski

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Basketball Analytics:
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Basketball Analytics: Spatial Tracking by Stephen Shea

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Geno Auriemma
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Geno Auriemma and Bob Knight: Learn from the Legends Series ~ 6-Pack DVD with Geno Auriemma and Bob Knight


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Roy Williams:
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Roy Williams: All Access North Carolina Basketball Practice 3 Pack DVD with Roy Williams

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Hasta OCTUBRE 1ro. 2016 !

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Libro de las jugadas
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de la NBA.
Técnicas, tácticas y
pautas de
entrenamiento.
National Basketball
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Giorgio Gandolfi


Libro de las jugadas de los entrenadores de la NBA. Técnicas, tácticas y pautas de entrenamiento.

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Análisis
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Miguel Ángel
Gomes Ruano


Análisis Del Rendimiento en Baloncesto: Es Posible Predecir Los Resultados? por Miguel Angel Gomez Ruano


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Once anillos,
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Eleven Rings: The Soul of Success by Phil Jackson and Hugh Delehanty

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101 Ejercicios
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101 ejercicios de baloncesto para jovenes por Mick Donovan


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Estudio Observacional
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Por Miguel Ángel
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Estudio Observacional de la Competición en Baloncesto por Miguel Angel Gomez Ruano


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•  1 ~ 50 Set Plays for
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Tim Floyd
Fred Hoiberg
Tom Izzo
Mike Krzyzewski
Gregg Marshall
Greg McDermott
Dave Paulsen
Bill Self
Pat Summitt
Tara Vanderveer


•  2 ~ Mike Krzyzewski:
All Access Duke
Basketball Practice
National Championship Season

by Mike Krzyzewski


•  3 ~ Bob Hurley Coaching High School Basketball 4-Pack con Bob Hurley

•  4 ~ Geno Auriemma and Bob Knight:
Learn from the Legends Series
6-Pack DVD

by Geno Auriemma
and Bob Knight


•  5 ~ Roy Williams: Acceso Total a las Prácticas del North Carolina Basketball 3-Pack DVD con Roy Williams



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# 1 ~

All Access Kentucky
Basketball Practice:
The National Championship
Season 2011-12

with John Calipari


John Calipari: All Access Kentucky Basketball Practice: The National Championship Season 2011-12 with John Calipari


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Coaching
Youth Basketball
5th Edition


by American Sport
Education Program
and Don Showalter


Coaching Youth Basketball-5th Edition by American Sport Education Program and Don Showalter

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# 3

All Access
USA Basketball Practice
7-Pack

with Don Showalter,
Mike Jones
& Rich Gray


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# 4 ~

Hot Hand:
The Statistics
Behind Sports'
Greatest Streaks

by Alan Reifman


Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks by Alan Reifman


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# 5 ~

Dr. Chris Stankovich:
Staying in the Game
Combating Coach
& Player Burnout
2-Pack DVDs
with Dr. Chris Stankovich


Chris Stankovich: Staying in the Game ~ Combating Coach & Player Burnout ~ 2-Pack with Chris Stankovich


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TOP 5 eBA del 2012 !

Lo MEJOR del 2012 !
hasta Diciembre 31, 2012

# 1 ~
El Juego
de los Grandes

por Pete Newell
y Swen Nater


El Juego de los Grandes por Pete Newell y Swen Nater


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# 2 ~
La Pirámide del Éxito:
Construyendo bloques
para una vida mejor

por Coach John Wooden


La piramide del exito: Construyendo bloques para una vida mejor por Coach John Wooden


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y los Vídeos...




# 3 ~
Pensar en el equipo.
Cómo entiendo el baloncesto
( y la vida )

por Xavi Pascual


Pensar en el equipo. Cómo entiendo el baloncesto ( y la vida ) por Xavi Pascual


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# 4 ~
Educados
para ganar

por Sique Rodríguez Gairí


Educados para ganar por Sique Rodríguez Gairí


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# 5 ~
Básquetbol Escolar:
Propuestas Metodológicas

Por Alejandro Orbelli


Básquetbol Escolar: Propuestas Metodológicas Por Alejandro Orbelli


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Los MEJORES 5 DVDs de
Entrenamiento del
Baloncesto Recomendados
del AÑO 2012:


• 1 ~ Acceso Total Prácticas del Kentucky Basketball University Campeonato Nacional 2011-12
2-pack DVD
with John Calipari


• 2 ~ Acceso Total a las Prácticas del Seleccionado de los EE.UU. 7-pack DVD
with Don Showalter,
Mike Jones
& Rich Gray


• 3 ~ Siguiendo en Juego: Combatiendo el Agotamiento del Entrenador y Jugador
2-Pack DVD con el
Dr Chris Stankovich


• 4 ~ Acceso Total a las Prácticas de Baloncesto
(2011-2012)
5-Pack DVD
con Geno Auriemma


• 5 ~ Acceso Total a las Prácticas de la Universidad Temple
3-pack DVD
con Fran Dunphy






más Libros de Baloncesto...

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