Basketball Statistics Blog

Basketball Statistics Referred Concepts:
The Real Value of a Lost Ball ~ Points Gained by Forcing Opponents' Turnovers

When a team perpetrate a turnover, a turnover is registered by the statistician. Following the game, on the next opponent possession, if the opponent scores, the regular statistical systems credits that opponent with a "point off a turnover" without regard to the type of turnover.

Case 1 – A1 steals the ball and dunks it on the other end, the Team B is credited for two "points off of turnovers".

Case 2 - B1 throws the ball out of bounds on offense, called a timeout, and then forced the Team A to use the entire shot clock before an A1 last-second jump shot score. Team B is also credited for two "points turnovers".

I don't understand that both these plays would be scored as two points off of turnovers, because only in one of them - the first case - did the scoring in accordance with fact result in a forthright manner from the turnover.

"Points off of turnovers" is thus, as taken by standard statistics systems, a deceptive statistic. This is why some coaches do not trust on the "points off turnovers" statistic to determine the price of turnovers to the team. On the contrary, they concentrate on the real prices of turnovers, which are double:

1 - The large price of a turnover is that the team who turned the ball over fail to keep an offensive scoring opportunity. The most significant price of perpetrating a turnover is the losing of an offensive scoring opportunity and not the opponent's next possession.

Offensive possessions per 48 minutes game are around the 93 / 95 per game, meanwhile for 40 minutes are 80/82. It's impossible to return any loss of one of these scoring opportunities and in the same way each turnover, on average, costs the team one of these opportunities.

...a forced steal in a Photograph from Charlotte Bobcats Basketball

2 - The opponent frequently obtains a better scoring opportunity off a turnover. This changes according the type of turnovers (see "Forced and Unforced Turnovers" at "Statistical Discussions").

a) an offensive foul after which the defense is able to assemble and reestablish will not make better the opponent's opportunities of scoring against that defense in that or any other situation.

b) In opposition, a steal leading to a high-percentage fast break can be a particularly priced turnover.

So the true "points off of turnovers" to be analyzed are those leading to opponents points scored in a direct way, though unmistakably this will change on any determined night being contingent on the category of turnover, being forced or unforced, and when in our offensive possession it happened.

The eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System place special emphasis on paying close attention also to the points gained by forcing opponents' turnovers, in our terms: the "forced steals".
Prof. Roberto Azar

Read More at eBA CLINICS ONLINE, search "forcing opponents' turnovers" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System
and at the eBA Encyclopedia.

'Basketball Registering Stats Referred Concepts'
is a Series of Notes edited every Thursday

To Read ALL the Articles in this Series, click here: Categories > Analysis Concepts

LOCKOUT PROFESSIONALS - Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Adrian Peterson, & Ron Artest

Your comments are Welcomed ! ... by means of eBA InterMail English ! NO NEED TO REGISTER !

tags:  basketball  ~  NBA Finals 2011  ~  NBA Lockout  ~  David Stern  ~  statistician's digest   ~  basketball analysis  ~  the real value of a lost ball
visit:  eBA Portal  ~  Stats Forums  ~  eBA Encyclopedia  ~  eBA Clinics  ~  eBA System Book  ~  eBA on Facebook  ~  eBA on Twitter  ~  eBA Store