Basketball Statistics Blog

Sunday's Reflexions on Basketball Statistics:
About the Fallacies of the Basketball eFG%

"... First what is eFG% ?: In laymen terms, it's a shooting statistic that takes into account 3 point shots by counting them as 1.5 field goals.

So for example if Kobe Bryant shoots 4 of 12 from the field, all 3 point shots, his FG% is 33% and his eFG% is 50%.

And if Elton Brand makes 6 of 12 shots, his FG% and eFG% are 50%. Both players score 12 points in this scenario.

The formula looks like this:

eFG% = (FGM + .5 * 3PM ) / FGA

eFG% is useful for showing a player's shooting efficiency. Both Bryant and Brand use 12 shots to net 12 points and by this method, Bryant is not penalized for attempting the more difficult 3-pointers.

So what’s wrong with eFG% ?

eFG% fails to recognize the impact of successes and failures. In the example above, Bryant failed 8 times by missing 8 shots while Brand only failed 6 times.

Hence, Bryant's 50% eFG is not equal to Brand's 50% eFG and if given the choice between the two, I would always choose the latter unless I was the opposing coach.

Why make the distinction when both players scored 12 points on 12 attempts ?

Because, during the game, succeeding is more valuable than failing and missing shots is detrimental on many levels.

1. Missed shots kill team momentum. Basketball is a game of runs and nothing ends a run quicker than sending one off the side of the rim. Conversely, swishing one through the net only adds to momentum, rhythm, and player confidence.

2. Missed shots lessen crowd enthusiasm. How many times have we seen crowd excitement grow with each successive basket only to be deflated by a failed attempt? Countless by my observation.

3. Missed shots often result in over-the-back fouls (on the bigs) or reaching fouls (by the disappointed shooter).

4. Missed shots are a success to the defensive team and a victory to the defensive player (hardly feelings you want your opponent to enjoy).

5. Missed shots are a golden opportunity for the defensive team to fast break, thereby, creating easy baskets and the ever-frustrating ‘touch’ fouls.

Imagine missing 8 out of 12 shots against the Phoenix Suns, who look to run on every occasion. Basketball minds know the very best time to initiate a fast break is on missed shots and steals. And, given the explosive nature of the Suns, providing them with eight potential opportunities is dangerous and counterproductive.

Conversely, making a basket allows your defense time to re-set and prepare for the next possession not to mention all the other intangibles that come from successful attempts.

Because eFG% ignores this impact of missing shots, it should not replace the tradition FG% measurement. Many Basketball forums, however, blindly quote eFG% as the end all shooting statistic. And while I certainly see its value, I cannot understate the importance of makes versus misses and success versus failure during the course of a Basketball game ..."

Our Reflexions Included about a Post by Tony Benedetti at
Basketball IQ.

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