Basketball Statistics Blog

Basketball Statistician's Digest: The Cost of Throwing Away Free Throws

From The Wages of Wins Journal By John Branch
Download source here: ' The Cost of Throwing Away Free Throws '

"... If we look at the NBA we can see evidence for why coaches should ignore free throw shooting. From 1977-78 to 2007-08 the correlation between a team’s free throw percentage and team winning percentage is only 0.18. In other words, free throw percentage explains only 3% of team wins [correlation is r, explanatory power is r2]. Given these numbers it’s clear that teams should just ignore free throw percentage. ..."

"... Perhaps the most famous poor performer at the line is Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq entered the league in 1992-93. Across the next 16 seasons (ending with the 2007-08 campaign), O’Neal posted a 0.307 WP48. Certainly this is an excellent mark (average is 0.100). But relative to the following sample of all-time greats, Shaq comes up a bit short: ..."

"... Of course, hitting free throws – by themselves – are not enough to win games. You also have to efficiently shoot from the field, rebound, create turnovers, and avoid turnovers. So coaches do have to focus on more than free throws. But if it’s true that coaches can change free throw percentage (and I am not sure this is the case), then they are throwing away points by not spending more time on this issue. ..."

"... That gives me hope. I have been under the false assumption that divulging too much data evens out the competition to the point that if you publicly develop a superior method you would help the competition too much. Instead it seems that people are too stubborn. That's a good thing for someone like me. I hope Berri does not respond to anything Cuban says.

Though if I were in his position I might point out that if Cuban’s coach had “listened” to win score in 2007 then they would not have sat one of their most productive players(Eric Dampier) for a series against a lesser opponent and lost in the first round when they were one of the best teams of all time. But that's just me. ..."

"... Mr. Berri writes about a lot of players being under or overrated. Inevitably overrated player is put in a situation where his “worth” must be proven and fails ( cough Iverson cough Kobe ). Inevitably underrated player gets a chance to prove his worth and succeeds ( cough Billups cough Garnett ). ..."

Read more in The Wages of Wins Journal

To read Today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish, click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here: ' Efecto que tiene la práctica aleatoria en suspensión
en el deporte del baloncesto en jóvenes de 15 y 16 años ' por Elder Eduardo Montoya Herrera y José Albeiro Echeverri Ramos

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