Basketball Statistics Blog

Basketball Statistician's Digest:
Analysis of how coaches, scouts and the media reward statistical production
and the statistical importance of non-statistical evaluations

From Basketball Statistics.com By Scott Sereday
Download source here: ' Analysis of how coaches, scouts and the media reward statistical production and the statistical importance of non-statistical evaluations '

"... The 2008-2009 NBA season preview for ESPN the Magazine compared analysis of players, coaches, general managers, statheads and fans as each defended why they “know best.” This gave me the idea of attempting to use some of these sources to “fill in the gaps” that statistics don’t account for. As statistical measurements and analysis progress, these gaps can be explained in a more unbiased form. ..."

"... In my first model I used the independent variables ... with a couple modifications. I eliminated several insignificant variables and used statistics per 100 possessions rather than per 40 minutes. I also didn’t use minutes per game as a variable since it can be viewed as a product of how coaches see the game. Finally, I didn’t weigh by player minutes, player possessions or any clutch/garbage aspects. ..."

"... a team is expected to score more points per 100 offensive possessions at a rate defined by the applicable (estimated) coefficient. For example, suppose that Player A and his Team A are identical to Player B and his Team B in every way except that Player A accumulates one more offensive rebound per 100 offensive possessions than Player B. This model assumes that when Player A is on the floor, Team A is expected to score 0.778 points more per 100 possessions then Team B is expected to score when Player B is on the floor. ..."

"... Another observation is that an assist is much more valuable on close shots and an assisted shot is much more valuable if it is from long range. This is likely explained by the increased scoring expectation obtained from making an assist type pass to a 3 point shooter versus a lay up shooter.

A pass to a direct lay up attempt greatly improves scoring chances over the expectation before that pass was completed. However, a pass directly leading to a 3 point shot only moderately increases scoring expectations, so much of the weight should be attributed to the 3 point scorer. Interestingly, the coefficient for an unassisted 3 pointer actually exceeds 3 points. ..."

"... This model indicates that, given a similar result, the taller a player is, the more his offensive involvement can help his team. Notice that this variable decreases the “value” attributed to offensive rebounds, while it increases the “impact” of steals and turnovers, among others.

This is the result of the correlation between these statistics and height (and possibly shot frequency). When I compared the impact of the versatility index, I noticed the addition of this statistic did not have any real impact on unassisted 2 and 3 point jump shots made and turnovers. It also had little impact on free throws, missed shots and steals. ..."

Read more in Basketball Statistics.com

To read Today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish, click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here: ' Estadísticas Asociadas al Juego que Discriminan entre Jugadoras Titulares y Suplentes de la Liga Femenina de la Asociación Nacional de Básquetbol (WNBA) ' por Miguel A. Gómez

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