Basketball Statistics Blog

Basketball Statistician's Digest:
Statistics and Basketball for Beginners

From Baseline Scenario By James Kwak
Download source here: ' Statistics and Basketball for Beginners '

"... I think that the general difficulty that many people have in understanding statistics is an important problem, because it leads people to misinterpret the world around them. ..."

"... But in the second segment, they take up that favorite example of statisticians everywhere: There are no streak shooters in basketball! (And if you think there are, you are just a weak creature of habit and prejudice who refuses to accept the pure truth of numbers.) ..."

"... This story has become such an article of faith in the “statistics are right/intuition is wrong” camp that it bears a little examination. ..."

"... However, they actually prove something more modest: that the chances of a given player making a given field goal attempt are not related to the success or failure of his immediately preceding attempt or attempts. I can raise some quibbles here, like the fact that they don’t look at how much time passes between those shot attempts; if you hit two shots in the second quarter and then miss one in the fourth quarter, that’s the same to them as if you shoot on three consecutive possessions. (I believe some of their analyses even span separate games.) ..."

"... So I will buy the conclusion that data about recent field goal attempts cannot be used to predict the outcome of the next field goal attempt. This is an analog to the efficient market hypothesis – you cannot predict which way an asset price will go based on its recent price movements. But I don’t think this proves that basketball players don’t shoot better in some periods and in some games than in others. ..."

"... When it comes to basketball, it strains belief to think that your ability to shoot the ball is a constant, day after day, play after play, all the time. For one thing, sometimes you are tired, or sick (and few of us can replicate Michael Jordan’s “flu game”), or injured, or distracted; the idea that this wouldn’t affect your shooting seems preposterous. If your actual field goal attempts end up looking like random patterns, then I think that’s more likely a result of the complex and un-modelable way in which you, your team, and the other team adapt to each other. ..."

Read more in Baseline Scenario

To read Today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish, click above on the 'Español' tab or click here: 'El uso del video en el baloncesto' por Frederic Sarre (Francia)

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