Basketball Statistics Blog

Basketball Statistician Sunday's Digest: What really DOES a blocked shot do ?

"... if each basketball shot carries with it an inherent statistical possibility of being a basket, a block is not necessarily 2 points prevented, since there is no guarantee that the shot that was blocked was going to be a basket, right ?
In the some way, steals avoid a shot opportunity for the opponent team , ok ?

Now, the question is, how the different defensive stops can be quantified ?

Photograph: al.com

Basically, a block is not 2 points made impossible from the moment you have no surety that the shot you blocked was going to be a basket. According to the eBA Basketball Clinics, in most cases, the blocked shot was going to miss 49% of the time.

Nevertheless, really DOES a blocked shot do, is to take that 40-50% probability of converting a basket and transform it 0%. When a defender player blocks a shot, gaining the possession, it is not possible for the other team to score in that possession.

Now, let me analyze the steals: they similarly take off a shot possibility for the other team. Stealing a ball, your team take that possession and make it a 0% probability of opponent scoring, instead of the implicit 40% probability of scoring each possession contains potentially.

As a result of this analysis, I think that this can be quantified finding out the value of a shot attempt, being fully aware WHAT a block and a steal is preventing relatively exactly ( individual player shooting percentages, of course, have weight ) with relation to the full basketball statistics game analysis. ..."

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System
at the eBA Encyclopedia > The Articles

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