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Basketball Statistician's Digest:
Bracket Building ~ Using Tempo-Free Stats

From Basketball Prospectus
Download source here: ' Bracket Building ~ Using Tempo-Free Stats '

"... Possession-based stats remove the bias of playing tempo from the assessment of a team's offensive or defensive effectiveness. Eliminating the influence of tempo assumes, however, that there isn't any inherent value in playing the game faster or slower that supercedes efficiency. It's a reasonable assumption, but is it true, particularly in the pressure cooker of March Madness? Does an up-tempo style of play lead to tourney overachievement, or are more deliberate teams more likely to exceed seed expectations? ..."

"... For years, I argued against the old sports adage that "defense wins championships" in the NCAA tournament. The raw points-scored and points-allowed numbers seemed to indicate that offensive firepower was a much more reliable indicator of a deep tourney run than defensive stinginess. When I ran the possession-based defensive efficiency numbers through PASE analysis, however, I discovered that defense actually does matter. ..."

"... Some of the other surprising stats on this list involve pre-tourney momentum and winning percentage. For once, the pundits appear to be right: teams that are hotter coming to the dance do overachieve. I never would've imagined that raw winning percentage mattered, but the numbers don't lie. All five of the tourney champs--and 16 of 19 semi-finalists--have owned a record better than .796. ..."

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