Basketball Statistics Blog

2008 NBA Playoffs: Top 10 Plays

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Statistician's Digest: Possessions & the Strength of a Team

The strength of a team is not established as the end result of a process by how many more opportunities at scoring it gets ( what our eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis call "plays" ), but on the contrary how much better it is at scoring with the possessions it has.

There's no "bonus" because possessions are imprecise but fairly close to be equal between a team and its opponent in any determined game. The way we define possessions (see here this excellent thread in this forum: Basketball Possessions: About the Concept, is the time from when one team gets the ball to when the other team gets it back.

Possessions have built-in attributes that make them unmeasurable utilitarians, the largest amount of which being that the number of possessions between a team and their opponents are identical.

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Rules Corner: Missed Shot - Ball OVER the Backboard:


"... On a missed shot, the ball hits the rim and bounces over and behind the backboard. The ball lands inbounds without touching the backboard supports. Is the ball still in play? ..."

No. It is a violation ( see Definitions and Discussion at the Global Basketball Encyclopedia from the eBA Stats ONLINE ) and the ball should be awarded to the opponent team.

The top, front, sides, and bottom of the backboard are all inbounds. Only the back of the backboard is out of bounds. If the ball passes over the top of the board, however, it is out of bounds at all the leagues, with exception of the International FIBA Rules.

eBA Statistical Register: an offensive missed shot and a defensive team rebound.

This topic is analyzed in the exposition " Basketball Rebounding " at eBA ONLINE.



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Coach's Digest: Historic FIBA Rules Changes

The FIBA Central Board, the highest executive body of the International Basketball Federation, met on Friday 25th April, and has continued its session yesterday, Saturday 26th April, in Beijing, China. The meeting has been organized in cooperation with the Chinese Basketball Association.

An additional press release containing several important decisions of the FIBA Central Board will be issued in the next hours. However, this morning the Central Board has taken some major and historic decisions as with regards to the game rules.

Indeed, upon recommendation of the FIBA Technical Commission (a group of experts that deal with the game rules), the FIBA Central Board has approved today several amendments to the Official Basketball Rules.

The recommendations by the FIBA Technical Commission and the decisions taken by the Central Board were strived by the attempt to further unify all existing game rules and to have, in the future, only one set of rules for the game of basketball worldwide.

Please find at our eBA Stats Portal a summary of all approved rule changes, which include historic amendments like the extension of the 3-point line (in place since 1984) and the change of the trapezoid restricted area (in place since the 1950s) to a rectangular one.

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EuroLeague 2008: The Playoffs Best 10 Plays

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Coach's Digest: About the Floor Percentage

...A normal game might have one team scoring 57 of 100 possessions and the other on 54 of 100 possessions.
The team scoring on 57% of its possessions will win 99% of the times. ...

...There is a possibility to win a game scoring in a 54% +/- of the possessions: scoring in a sufficient quantity of possessions 3 pointers and/or that the opponent will have a great quantity of his 57 possessions ended in 1 point. ...

Excerpts from the discussions at the "eBA Statistics Clinics"

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Statistician's Digest: The Most Accurate Passers' Formula

About the eBA formula to measure who were the most accurate passers, and who passed without turning it over, we must understand, first of all, that the meaning of this type of formulas is more in the rankings of the players, meanwhile the number itself doesn't mean anything in terms of basketball analysis. It depends on number of touches, passes, minutes played and teammates on the floor, and you can't simply blow up bad passes on a passes per minute basis.

For ranking purposes you can apply this method which retorts the percentage of touches that were bad passes, in addition to the league average:

League Bad Pass% = sum(Bad Pass) / sum (Touch)
Player Bad Pass% = Bad Pass / Touch

Bad Pass over Average = ( Player Bad Pass% - League Bad Pass% ) * Touch

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2008 NBA Playoffs: Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs

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Added today to the eBA Encyclopedia: Probability

"... Probability is the likelihood or chance that something is the case or will happen.

Probability theory is used extensively in areas such as statistics, mathematics, science and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex systems. ..."

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Basketball Unforgettable Legends: Fernando Romay

Fernando Romay Pereiro (born September 23, 1959 in Galicia) is a retired basketball player from Spain, who represented his native country in two consecutive Summer Olympics, starting in 1980.

Photograph: Vedia PhotoStream

At his second Olympic appearance he won the silver medal with the Spain national basketball team. He stands around 7 ft tall.

Romay makes regular appearances on Spanish television on programmes such as Mira Quien Baila! (Look Who's Dancing).

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Statistician's Digest: Per 48 Minutes Stats & Time Played

"... remember that, when using 48-minutes stats, the larger the difference in minutes played, the less reliable this comparison will be.
Although eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System uses this method, on the later same idea: the fewer minutes a player has played, the less likely his per-48 stats are to reflect what he'd do in extended time. ..."

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EuroLeague 2008: Four Teams looking for the European Cup !

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Statistician's Digest: Percentage Probability of Scoring

"... Are there any statistics on the percentage probability of scoring coming after each extra pass on offense? ..."

From some seasons ago, the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System keep statistics on the percentage chance of scoring following each additional pass on offense, but the amount of data is insufficient to expose the research.
By this moment, we can affirm that the defenses usually give up a scoring opportunity after three passes, but this is yet under study.
An outline of this topic is developed in the next exposition in the eBA ONLINE Statistics Course about "Basketball Possessions Analysis".

The first results of our research are included in the current Basketball Statistics Register Course in eBA ONLINE which current course began on Monday 3, March 2008, 21:00 GMT !

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EuroBasket.com: eBA Recommended Web Sites

The Eurobasket Database:    Eurobasket database is the biggest such kind of basketball database in the world. It currently contains: over 165,000 profiles of players and coaches !!! Click here to register to have permanent access.

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NBA 2008: NBA Top 10 Plays of the Week 24 - April 09 / 15

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Basketball News: There’s no Oberto at this hotel...

The hotel receptionist answered us: "No, there’s no Oberto at this hotel"...
One of the downsides to being a famous player in the NBA is that there is always someone who wants a ticket to a game – even when playing on the road.

Fabricio Oberto of Argentina, a center with the San Antonio Spurs, says it got to be such a problem that decided to check into hotels using a false name.

"The thing is that there is always an Argentinian that tries to find you or calls you to see if you have any tickets for the game,” he says.

So what does Oberto do?

Photograph: Identidad Latina

He shrugs his shoulders and has some fun.

"I tend to use names of musicians, especially famous guitar players,” he says.

“And I even use some of the famous guitarists that have already passed away.”

Oberto, a guitar player himself, helped Argentina win the gold medal at the Athens Games in 2004 and is expected to represent his country again this year in Beijing.

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Rules Corner: Loose Ball and pushed by own teammate:


"... Loose ball and Team B player gets the ball and turns very quickly to shoot at the basket, but when he goes up for the shot he is pushed by another Team B player in the loose ball struggle yet. The official blew the whistle and then realized that it was his own teammate that had contact with him. Which is the rule of this situation and, specially the statistical register ? ..."

In an inadvertent whistle situation like this, the official must determine where the ball was at the time of the whistle:

1) the ball is still in the shooter's hands: ball becomes dead immediately, no goal can be scored, and team B gets the ball back. No statistical register, out of the play-by-play story.

2) the ball was in the air: the goal counts if it goes, and the games goes with a jump ball or the Alternating Possession arrow, its depends by the league.

3) if the ball had been secured on a rebound already: that team receives the ball for a throw-in.

This topic is summarized at Features & Statistics Forum and is analyzed at the eBA Basketball Statistics Clinics.



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Coach's Digest: NBA teams follow lead of baseball

"... The basic principle in many of the basketball stat formulas is how efficiently players use possessions. The object is to get players who take better shots, commit few turnovers and grab the highest possible percentage of rebounds. It's not just looking at players who score and rebound the most, but who do so with the fewest chances. The more efficient offensive and defensive possessions a team has, the more points it will score and the fewer it will give up.

So all is explained? Not exactly. Not all numbers are created equal and there are gaps in the code, such as on defense, where there are fewer created stats to record and measure. ..." by Brian Windhorst in his article "NBA teams follow lead of baseball".

Brian Windhorst can be reached at bwindhor@thebeaconjournal.com.
Check out the full article in the Windhorst's Cavaliers weblog clicking here.

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EuroLeague 2008: This Week's Game - TAU Ceramica vs. Partizan

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Statistician's Digest: Rebounding Percentage: Opportunities Formula

"... How can I evaluate my team's quality at rebounding opportunities? ..."

Here you have the formula for a team's rebounding percentage:

Off%= (Own OR) / (Own OR + Opponent's DR)

Def%= (Own DR) / (Own DR + Opponent's OR)

Tot%= (Own Total Rebs) / (Own Total Rebs + Opponent's Total Rebs)

For the applicability and discussion of the formula, go to eBA System Area.

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Statistician's Digest: Free Throw Shooting Influence on End Result

"... In what manner free throw shooting have an influence on the end result of games ?
Let's take to be true, for example, that both teams had converted all of their free throws, or the losing team convert all of its free throws and the winning team convert the same number of free throws.
How all these data is performed statistically to the end ? ..."

Photograph: Basketball_China

Here are some numbers from the archives of the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System before moving this question to the right thread:

1.- The average number of free throws attempted in a game is about 25 per game.
2.- The shooting average is about 75% efficiency.
3.- That implies as a possibility that a 1% upward would make an actual deviation in FTM once every 4 games (see 1.-: teams shoot 25 FTA per game), translated in only one point every four games.
4.- Teams win by one point 5% of the total of games played.
5.- That 1% upward in FT% would tell us that 25% of these 1-point wins would instead go to overtime.
6.- And finally, to go on with discussion, that 1% FT% upward give us a win on 5% * 25% * 50% = 0.6% of the team's games, or 0.5 current games: that's means one additional win every two seasons.

The discussion continues in the right topic: "Free Throws Statistical Charging" in the Features & Statistics Board.

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NBA 2008: NBA Top 10 Plays of the Week 23 - April 02 / 08

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Basketball Unforgettable Legends: Dolph Schayes

Adolph "Dolph" Schayes (known as Dolph Schayes) (born May 19, 1928 in New York, New York) is a retired American professional basketball player and coach in the NBA. He was a member of the 1955 NBA champion Syracuse Nationals and 12-time All-Star. Schayes played for the Nationals (and their reincarnation, the Philadelphia 76ers) from 1948 to 1964 in a Hall of Fame career.

Photograph: Vedia PhotoStream

In the NBA, Schayes did not miss a single game from February 17, 1952 until December 26, 1961 (a streak of 706 games). Schayes led the NBA in rebounding (16.4 rpg) during 1950-51 season, and led the NBA in free throw percentage three times.[2] Dolph Schayes was a six time All-NBA First-Team honoree and was also selected to the All-NBA Second-Team six times.[2] Upon retirement in 1964, Schayes held the NBA records for career scoring (19,249 points) and games played (1,059). In 1996, Schayes was selected as one of the 50 Greatest NBA players of all-time.

On the sidelines, Schayes won NBA Coach of the Year honors in 1966.

Schayes made Syracuse, New York, his home upon his arrival in 1948, and, even though the Syracuse Nats left the city in 1963, he still makes his home there. When Larry Costello (a native of nearby Minoa, New York, and a teammate of Schayes' on the Syracuse Nationals) died in 2001, Schayes became the only remaining member of the Syracuse Nationals basketball team to still be living and working in that Upstate New York community.

He is the father of retired NBA journeyman center Danny Schayes. Schayes is also noteworthy as one of the few NBA players in history who is Jewish.

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eBA Basketball Encyclopedia: Dribbling Aids

Any form of equipment that assists players
while dribbling a basketball.
A common type of dribbling aid are “dribbling glasses”
(Also called “Blinders”).

Go to the eBA BAsketball Encyclopedia

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Forum's Digest: Rules without Location Reference

"... Team A is over the limit and Team B has possession at his backcourt. Team A player make a personal foul in order to provoke a free throws situation: the free throws must be thrown or only when the middle line is crossed and it may be an offensive foul ? ..."

Photograph: the 12th. manchild

The question is not clearly formulated, but we'll try to understand the following:
The Rules tell us that a personal foul is a player's fault which implies illegal contact with an opponent, being the ball live or dead.

Common examples are holding, charging, tripping, blocking, pushing, or interference. A personal foul results in either a player taking free throws or a team losing possession of the ball.

So, the Rules states that beyond a given number of fouls: 4 team fouls per NBA, FIBA or ULEB period; 8 per WNBA half; 7 per half in college the team is over the limit". See the eBA Global Basketball Encyclopedia:

"Each team is allowed the given number of fouls per quarter or half for which no free throws are assessed ( unless they are committed against players in act of shooting ); after the given number of fouls a team is said to be "over the limit" and free throws are assessed on all subsequent fouls. This team is also said "to be in the penalty".

The basketball rules don't make any reference about the location of the player at the moment the personal foul is committed, with reference to backcourt or frontcourt, only they must be between the court legal limits. So, any statistical analysis rules refers to this situation too.

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EuroLeague 2008: This Week's Game - CSKA vs. Olympiakos

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Basketball News:
Schedule for the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament for Men

FIBA and the Hellenic Basketball Federation are happy to announce the competition schedule for the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament for Men that will be played in Athens (Greece), in the 18.000 OAKA Sports Arena, located in Maroussi, from 14th to 20th July 2008.

The following nine teams have already booked their tickets for the Olympic Basketball Tournament for Men that will take place in Beijing, China, from 10th to 24th August 2008: China (host), Spain (World Champion), Angola (African Champion), USA (Champion of the Americas), Argentina (Americas runner-up), Iran (Asian Champion), Russia (European Champion), Lithuania (European Bronze medallist) and Australia (Oceanian Champion)

The remaining three men's berths for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games will be decided in this 12-team FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament that will feature the following participants: Cameroon and Cape Verde (Africa), Puerto Rico, Brazil and Canada (Americas), Lebanon and Korea (Asia), Greece, Germany, Croatia and Slovenia (Europe) and New Zealand (Oceania).

Listed below are the composition of the four groups, as well as the complete tournament schedule. Please note that all tip-off hours are local time in Athens, Greece.

1. Composition of groups:

Group A: Brazil, Greece and Lebanon
Group B: Cape Verde, Germany and New Zealand
Group C: Canada, Korea and Slovenia
Group D: Cameroon, Croatia and Puerto Rico

2. Preliminary Round:

14th July 2008:

13:00 hours:New Zealandvs.Cape Verde
15:30 hours: Korea vs. Slovenia
19:30 hours: Croatiavs. Cameroon
22:00 hours: Greecevs. Lebanon

15th July 2008:

13:00 hours:Sloveniavs.Canada
15:30 hours: Cape Verdevs. Germany
19:30 hours: Cameroonvs. Puerto Rico
22:00 hours: Lebanonvs. Brazil

16th July 2008:

13:00 hours:Canadavs.Korea
15:30 hours: Puerto Ricovs. Croatia
19:30 hours: Germanyvs. New Zealand
22:00 hours: Brazilvs. Greece

The teams placed 1st and 2nd in each group will advance to the Quarter-Finals; the teams placed 3rd in each group will be eliminated and may return home.

17th July 2008: Rest Day

3. Quarter-Finals:

18th July 2008:

Game 13: A1 vs. B2
Game 14: B1 vs. A2
Game 15: C1 vs. D2
Game 16: D1 vs. C2

The games of the Quarter-Finals will be played at 13:00 hours, 15:30 hours, 19:30 hours and 22:00 hours. The order of games will be confirmed after the end of the Preliminary Round.

4. Semi-Finals:

19th July 2008:

Game 17: Winner 13 vs. Winner 15
Game 18: Winner 14 vs. Winner 16

The Semi-Final games will be played at 19:00 hours and 21:30 hours. The order of games will be confirmed after the end of the Quarter-Finals.

The two winners of the Semi-Finals will qualify for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The two losers will play the game for the 3rd place (Game 19 below) for one remaining Olympic spot.

5. Finals:

20th July 2008:

Game 19 (20:00 hours): Loser 17 vs. Loser 18

The winner will qualify for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games.

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Forum's Digest: FTA and Personal Fouls - The Answer

Applying the information available from boxscores, with the crew of 3 officials included, using 18 years quality of data, we found nothing at the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System Archives. No individual official, as a factor in the crew of 3 model, had an important effect on the number of FTA and Personal Fouls in a game.

Some other numbers seem to link fouls called to single officials, rather than the crew of 3 officials we had to use in our model. Concentrating on single officals would make bigger the power of any analysis, for sure, but I still consider unlikely that the results would be statistically significant.

Fouls called by year at the NBA:
2007 finals, 54.6 fouls a game - Playoffs, 51 - Regular Season, 48.5
2006 finals, 51.5 fouls a game - Playoffs 48 - Regular season. 45.5.
2005 finals, 45.5 fouls - 2004, 41.5 - 2003, 49 - 2002, 46 - 2001, 46 - 2000, 48.
Finals foul average for preceding 7 years: 47.8.

1- Therefore last year it was the highest PF call rate but not a significant difference with the two recent seasons.
2 - 3.6 more fouls called than in playoffs series is no significant.
3 - It looks like the refs were more rigorous in general, not just in this series.
4 - Playoff games have more fouls called per period, about two per game for home teams and three for away teams. The relative importance of these consequences is very small.
5 - Standard deviation of PF/possession is about 0.05. That means about 5 PF per game.
6 - If a team averages 25 PF per game: one in six games they'll have 30 or more PFs, and two games per season they'll have 35 PFs.
7 - There is really some tendency for a ref to call too many fouls on a team that fouls too much.

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NBA 2008: NBA Top 10 Plays of the Week 22 - March 26 / April 01

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Forum's Digest: FTA and Personal Fouls

"... Are there at the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System Archives any statistical record of FTA and Personal Fouls inconsistencies during regular season games and playoff games ?
My real question is at what point does the deviation between fouls called on two teams become statistically outside the domain of convention ?

In like manner, is there a point where the difference with some standard measurements becomes so great that it is so statistically improbable that it is an indicator of a game refereed clearly in the favor of one team ?

This is a good topic when the media is demanding an unfairly behaviour of certain basketball officials. ..."

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