Basketball Statistics Blog

Coach's Digest: Minutes Played, the Foul Trouble & Fouling Out

"... How to make a statistical calculation of the player's missed playing time ascribable to fouls ?
Is there in the the eBA System some data about the player utilization and substitution set of rules in the foul trouble case ? That means to say, when they are sent to the bench and after which foul number ? ..."

To calculate missed playing time ascribable to fouls, we must base our analysis in the following assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:

In FIBA & NBA:
No change when a player commits his first foul.
Committing his second a player foul would be replaced and have to wait at the bench until the half of the second quarter.
A player committing his third foul would be replaced and would be a bench player until the third quarter.
With the critical (in FIBA) fourth foul committed a player would be replaced and have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
In NBA:
A player committing his fifth foul would have to be out of the game until the half of the fourth quarter.

Now, how often do players foul out of a game ? When the 4th. FIBA or 5th NBA foul happens ? Which percentage of the players with the 4th. FIBA or 5th NBA foul are fouled out ?

- 49% of the 4th. fouls FIBA or 5th. fouls NBA come with about 3 minutes left in the game: remember to consider, 40 minutes in FIBA and 48 in the NBA !
- 82% of all players who perpetrate a 4th. fouls FIBA or 5th. fouls NBA do not foul out.

This is reasonable from the moment the studies from eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System demonstrates that even the most players having a tendency to foul lose only a few minutes per game because of their foul trouble. But they play the great majority of their minutes near the danger of fouling out.

The analysis of the different types of Foul Trouble, are studied in the eBA Basketball Statistics Register Clinic: next Course opens on October 1st., 21:00 GMT.

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tags:  basketball  ~  coach's digest   ~  basketball analysis  ~  foul trouble